I really don’t understand war these days. Or more specifically I don’t understand people’s attitude towards war. Or even more specifically I don’t understand the reactions of people (read “my fellow Canadians”) to the Ukrainian conflict and its economic reality.

A lot of it is the obvious euro-centrism that seems to privilege the death and destruction in the Ukraine over, let’s say, Bosnia or Palestine, but even more of it is the apparent complete cluelessness of observers and commentators to the economics of modern war in relation to the outcomes. This stuff is expensive. And its utility  is often limited by training—sometimes extremely so (just look at what is happening to the poorly trained Russian forces). And we just don’t have a lot of anything.

Take the airforce for example. In late WW II the Canadian Air force had multiple thousands of fighters and bombers in its inventory. By the mid 60s (and still in the height of the cold war) it had little more than a 1000 fighters and by the 80s it consisted of around a 100 CF-18 Hornets. And the new plan is to acquire something like the modern F-35… but only 88 of them. Why? It’s expensive. Very expensive. And in peacetime spending money on the military doesn’t play well anywhere except the U.S. Not to mention the investment in training and materiels—I met a soldier once who told me there weren’t even allowed to fire live rounds from their rifles for  a lot of their training…because it’s expensive.

The point

Which brings us to what I think is the “stupid human trick” of the week. Trudeau had stated that he would send artillery to help the Ukrainians. This quote from the original article:

Both Perry and Leslie said they suspect Canada’s likeliest option for Ukrainian military aid is the M777 howitzer, which fires a 155mm shell.

….

Canada currently has 37 M777s, though it’s not clear how many would be sent to Ukraine.

—https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukraine-artillery-1.6426132

A M777 is worth ~$830,000. The pundits in the article go on to speculate:

Leslie said Canada could focus on Ukraine’s request for armoured vehicles by sending 50 light armoured transports, known as LAVs.

“They have a remarkable gun on them and they do a lot of useful work,” Leslie said. “And right now, Ukraine needs them more than we do.”

This from our inventory of  around 650. “The original cost of an operational LAV III ranged from $ 1-4 Million depending upon the configuration. ” (—https://www.veterans.gc.ca/eng/remembrance/memorials/national-inventory-canadian-memorials/details/10210) 

So what? you ask. Well here is an interesting infographic about Russian losses in the Ukraine (Note: it is from  Ukrainian sources so the numbers might be exaggerated, but you get the idea.)

 

—https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1517504759581790208

So ya. 5o LAVs (50-200 million dollars worth) or a maybe a dozen artillery pieces (at 4.1 million dollars) ain’t no drop in the bucket in a country that lets it’s servicemen fly around in decades-old planes and float on even older warships. And  in a conflict where the Russians have already lost more inventory than Canada owns, you gotta think it won’t last too long.

So anyone thinks we are “lending” our support they should probably think again. What we are doing (and btw, I in no way object to the plan) is giving a significant chunk of our own military materiel away, never to be seen again, and given the history of Canadian military spending over the last 40 years, very unlikely to be replaced.  I just wish people would clue in to the long-term realities of the modern military scene. We should either be in it to win it, equip our personnel with current, useful, safe equipment regardless of the cost; or just get out of the war game all together and rely on the Americans or go Swiss or something. Every friggin’ election we elect a government (it doesn’t matter which stripe, the Cons are just as bad as the Libs etc.) that are afraid to spend appropriately for fear of offending the voters. And then next thing you know we are giving away what little we have because, well, our euro brothers and sisters in spirit, the Ukrainians, need it and the voters are all full of the feels.

If you can’t tell it ticks me off me just a bit.

Update

It seems we are sending 4 artillery pieces along with:

One of three defence sources said the package included a number of precision-guided Excalibur rounds left over from the Afghan war. The GPS-guided shells are worth about $112,000 US per round.

—https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762

“Retired lieutenant-general Andrew Leslie says the federal government should quickly replace any military equipment it gives to Ukraine.”

Right. Sure.

Love him or hate him there really is no denying that Kenney has a bone to pick with graphic designers. First there was that fiasco with the War Room logo

…and a few other examples of incredibly bad design along the way. But the latest “outrage” is this beauty. I know to you non-designers it may just be a meh example of a sign but it almost feels like he went out of the way to break every single rule of graphic design. I don’t know, maybe a designer whacked him with a Pantone book when he was a kid? Anyway, it’s a profession for a reason Jason, please just spend a little money on your comms? Please?

Oh, and the mockery amongst the community included this little gem if you are wondering one of the reasons we find it so hideous 🙂 :

From the DM’s…

UCP Comms: “Hey Jason, we know what we need to do to win the hearts and minds of central Albertans…”

Kenney – “What’s that?”

UCP Comms – ALL THE FOOOOOOOOOOOOONTS!!!!!

 

Next in my ongoing series…

I’ve tried to stay out of it but this convoy thing brought out some truly stupid human escapades. The best of which, IMHO, was the total lack of understanding we Canadians seem to have of how our government works.

—https://factnest.com/activism/file-a-vote-of-no-confidence-against-justin-trudeau/

And this wasn’t the only site. The misinformation/misunderstanding/outright falsehood (depending on your own point-of-view) had spread far and wide and was being distributed freely amongst the protestors and supporters. Apparently this stupidity was so widespread that the GG had to issue a statement explaining that she (or her office as representative of the Queen) cannot dissolve governments willy-nilly.

—https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/governor-general-no-confidence-1.6360883

I don’t care what you politics are, but come on…at least familiarize yourself with the thing you are protesting against. Sheesh.

A little bit more on the subject of what the parliamentary system is actually about: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/charter-gg-disinformation-civic-awareness-1.6365223

Someone with absolutely no understanding of what an education is for…lol.

Stuart Smith 28 minutes ago
Training and apprenticeships are important elements in our future. Good on AB’s government for spreading some of the lolly around to small business rather than simply massively subsidizing universities who produce workers absent marketable skills. But universities do produce lots of inside hands reaching out for a lifetime defined benefit fully indexed pension.
— Comment section
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jason-kenney-jobs-announcement-alberta-second-stage-1.6242690

The US is definetly in America, but you are way off its so similar to Canada. Canada is under tremendous lockdowns, they don’t have Freedom of speech, they have a large wellfare state, etc. They are similar only in language and by proximity. I guess all Central America is the same to you?

—https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f48/la-vagabonde-i-dont-understand-252419.html#post3431451

But I’m not gonna post it.

There’s too much anger already.

Don’t be angry.

 

I wrote this rambling reply to a Cruisers Forum conversation surrounding the Gov’t’s ability to communicate facts. Then I decided not to post it. But it has some thoughts worth preserving so…

[QUOTE=Mike OReilly;3401382]Yes … see even I’m doing a piss-poor job here, and I’m a science writer :redface:.

If your choice is binary: mRNA vs viral vector, it makes perfect sense to go with the one that has slightly less risk, and slightly more efficacy. But none of these choices are binary. There are multiple factors, including availability AND most importantly getting any vaccine sooner rather than later.

The risk of contracting Covid-19 far outweigh the risk of getting a weird blood clot; by something like 10,000 fold. But an honest scientist will tell you the risk is greater with AZ and Jansen than with Pfizer or Moderna, so in some hypothetical situation where you can reduce your risk of contracting the disease to near-zero, it makes sense to hold out for the lower-risk vaccine.

But this all requires an ability to rationally assess risk, and that is something few people know how to do.

It reminds me of the first time I went to see a lawyer. I wanted to know if I could start a business without doing anything other than opening a bank account. An hour of risk assessment, fear mongering and over-explaining worst-case scenarios he wrapped up up with a simple “yes, but you will be personally liable.” Since all I wanted to do was graphic design under a company name it seemed a bit hysterical. I now realize that all that liability he was talking about applied to him as well. If he didn’t do his damnedest to scare the bejesus out of me he would have been “shirking” his responsibilities.

It is really hurting my brain to listen to all the people who b*tch about governments lying and withholding information or just plain being wrong. Do I think this whole thing has been a case-study in communication f*ck-ups? Yes. But the thing most people think the gov’t is there to do isn’t accurate (at least outside the US…they have a weird origin story…). They aren’t primarily responsible for telling us the truth etc.—they are responsible for the common weal. And if anyone has been a parent you know that doesn’t always involve “truth” or “justice.” We can argue about that if you want, but I just want my government to do what needs to be done—I really couldn’t give a damn if they have to mislead me in order to get the rest of the population to line up and toe the line. Up to a point.

A lot of truth in this. People are funny.